{"id":22245,"date":"2020-06-22T15:51:03","date_gmt":"2020-06-22T14:51:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/unitelive.org\/?p=22245"},"modified":"2020-06-22T15:51:04","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T14:51:04","slug":"johnson-unlikely-to-get-it-done-by-years-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/?p=22245","title":{"rendered":"Johnson unlikely to \u00e2\u20ac\u0098get it done\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 by year\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s end"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer had bad news for Boris Johnson last week.<\/p>\n

Lighthizer told the House ways and means committee \u00e2\u20ac\u201d the chief tax-writing committee of the House of Representatives \u00e2\u20ac\u201d that securing a US-UK trade deal by the end of the year is unlikely.<\/p>\n

It is Britain\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s stated objective to strike deals with the US, Australia, New Zealand and Japan that would make up the shortfall of no deal with the EU \u00e2\u20ac\u201d and open the way for Britain to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement For Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). That agreement covers Canada, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.<\/p>\n

Lighthizer was asked if a deal with Britain could be struck this year. He responded by saying \u00e2\u20ac\u015bthat would be a very, very, very quick time. I think it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s unlikely that that happens. I would say it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s possible, although unlikely, that we could get an agreement this year. It is almost impossible unless the members decided they wanted to do something extraordinary to have it actually come before the Congress before November.\u00e2\u20ac\u0165<\/p>\n

Lighthizer said the timelines established in the 2015 Trade Promotion Authority law make it \u00e2\u20ac\u015bnearly impossible\u00e2\u20ac\u0165 for Congress to consider a US-UK trade deal this year if the two sides manage to reach an agreement.<\/p>\n

He did say that he was confident the two sides eventually would reach a deal, saying the question was only a matter of \u00e2\u20ac\u015bwhen.\u00e2\u20ac\u0165<\/p>\n

But that was bad news for Johnson as he is desperate to get a deal in the bag before the November US presidential election, but to do that Democrats would have to agree to the deal at the same time as they are in a massive election fight with Trump.<\/p>\n

Government models say Britain\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s GDP would fall by 7.6 per cent over 15 years if a trade deal with the EU is not reached, and that a deal with the US would deliver an increase in GDP of just 0.16 per cent. \u00e2\u20ac\u015bSome deal,\u00e2\u20ac\u0165 a US union official told me.<\/p>\n

If Biden wins the presidency don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t expect the Democrats to be softer on trade as they too will have their eyes on agri-food, pharma and the NHS.<\/p>\n

US and British negotiating teams have begun a second round of \u00e2\u20ac\u015bvirtual\u00e2\u20ac\u0165 trade talks. The US has tabled its proposals in most areas, expected to be around 30 to 32 chapters. Britain has tabled text only in \u00e2\u20ac\u015bsome\u00e2\u20ac\u0165 areas, he said.<\/p>\n

The coronavirus pandemic means that there is an inability to conduct in-person negotiations. Lighthizer is on record as saying he didn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t think a major trade deal could be negotiated virtually.<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u015bThe biggest single problem is you don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t have face-to-face meetings and I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m not one that believes that are you ever going to negotiate a major trade deal over video or over the telephone. I just don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t think it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s possible. The video tends to be sort of scripted sort of things and you end up not having 10 to 12 to 15 hours together in a room, which I think is necessary to come to compromise. So that\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s the biggest problem.\u00e2\u20ac\u0165<\/p>\n

The US negotiators are expected to drive a hard bargain and see Britain being in a weak position with overly optimistic statements and previous promises from Johnson hobbling Britain \u00e2\u20ac\u201d while trying to get deals on five fronts, which Britain previously claimed would be a \u00e2\u20ac\u015bwalk in the park.\u00e2\u20ac\u0165<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u0098Johnson desperate for a deal\u00e2\u20ac\u2122<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Lighthizer has already said that he believed discussions with Britain on agriculture would be \u00e2\u20ac\u015bless contentious\u00e2\u20ac\u0165 than talks with the EU as Johnson is desperate for a deal and will perform a U-turn on previous commitments \u00e2\u20ac\u201c particularly allowing US poultry washed in a chlorine solution to be sold in Britain..<\/p>\n

The US wants science-based standards on agriculture and will not agree to a deal without them, Lighthizer said and if Britain adopts the EU\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s regulatory standards, which include a ban on poultry washed in a chlorine solution, the US will give Britain less in a trade deal.<\/p>\n

In addition the US has its eyes firmly on the pharma industry and the NHS and its ability to sell US manufactured drugs at higher prices on the British market.<\/p>\n

Equally the US-EU talks have made little headway, but the US still sees a deal with the EU as a priority.<\/p>\n

We also learnt that International Trade Secretary Liz Truss has \u00e2\u20ac\u015bopened talks\u00e2\u20ac\u0165 with Australia and New Zealand as a step towards joining the CPTTP trading bloc. The CPTTP has clauses to set up secret investor state dispute courts. It has no enforceable protections on workers\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 and consumer rights \u00e2\u20ac\u201d and would risk an increase of dumped imports from Vietnam putting British jobs on the line.<\/p>\n

However, despite Liz Truss\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s optimism in saying trade deals with Australia and New Zealand would be \u00e2\u20ac\u015bambitious and wide ranging,\u00e2\u20ac\u0165 an analysis by the Department of International Trade (the department she heads up) predicts a trade deal with Australia could only boost Britain\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s GDP by between 0.01 per cent and 0.03 per cent in the long term, and a trade deal with New Zealand would only boost the economy by no more than 0.001 per cent while in a worst-case scenario such a deal could actually shrink the UKs GDP.<\/p>\n

This bad news comes at the same time that Bill Emmott, chairman of the Japan Society of Britain and former editor-in-chief of The Economist, said there is zero chance of a UK-Japan trade deal until the EU-UK trade arrangements have been agreed.<\/p>\n

Johnson\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s hopes of securing quick and ambitious trade deals are being dashed by the day.<\/p>\n

\u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

By Tony Burke, Unite assistant general secretary and TUC general council lead on employment and union rights @TonyBurke2010<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

This feature<\/a> first appeared in the Morning Star, June 22 <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lighthizer said the timelines established in the 2015 Trade Promotion Authority law make it \u00e2\u20ac\u015bnearly impossible\u00e2\u20ac\u0165 for Congress to consider a US-UK trade deal this year if the two sides manage to reach an agreement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":22251,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[22],"tags":[1205,486,393,1209],"wps_subtitle":"PM\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s hopes of post-Brexit deals with other markets are going nowhere writes Unite AGS Tony Burke \u00c2\u00a0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22245"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22245"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22254,"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22245\/revisions\/22254"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/unitelive.test.igniteamt.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}