Yet more uncertainty

Prime minister Theresa May gave her clearest picture yet of what the government will be seeking as it leaves the European Union yesterday (January 17) in a landmark speech.

But still more questions remain than answers – May yesterday set out only principles that will guide the negotiating process, but any deal will ultimately have to be agreed by both houses of Parliament as well as the 27 remaining EU countries.

Did yesterday’s speech give any indication what the future will hold for working people under Brexit?

For one, the prime minister highlighted that workers’ rights would be protected.

“As we translate the body of European law into our domestic regulations, we will ensure that workers’ rights are fully protected and maintained,” she said.

But Unite assistant general secretary Tony Burke argued that what sounds like cast-iron assurances over workers’ rights is anything but.

“The government may grandfather all EU workers’ rights across in the Great Repeal Bill but then they can add on what are called ‘sunset clauses’ which means over a certain amount of time these rights can be taken away without having to have a debate in Parliament through statutory instruments,” he said.

“There are enough hard-Brexiteers in the Tory party – like Priti Patel who said she wanted to see 50 per cent of workers’ rights from the EU stripped away – that makes this scenario entirely possible.”

Uncertainty

Protection for working people must translate also into protection of jobs.

And just today (January 18) we’ve been given a taste of the stormy seas the economy will navigate as Brexit looms – bosses at the Pizza Factory owned by food giant 2 Sisters have partially blamed Brexit on the imminent threat to nearly 300 jobs.

In a new year message to employees, management highlighted the “extremely challenging economic environment following Brexit.”

Unite regional officer Andy Shaw said “it very bad news for the workers and their families, and a body blow for the wider Nottingham economy.”

Now Pizza Factory workers are preparing to take industrial action after bosses summarily rejected a reasonable alternative plan to redundancy put forward by Unite.

This may be only the beginning of threats to jobs as the prime minister reiterated her commitment to a so-called ‘hard’ Brexit, which she said means the UK cannot seek continued membership of the Single Market.

She has also waivered over membership of the EU Customs Union, arguing that the UK can possibly become “an associate member of the Customs Union in some way” or seek a new customs agreement with the EU entirely.

Unite researcher Ben Norman highlighted that May’s hard-line approach over the Single Market will only further exacerbate uncertainty among the UK’s major manufacturers.

“From what we’ve found, nearly 80 per cent of all big manufacturers in the UK have said they are holding off on investment because of Brexit uncertainty,” he said. “This will translate into dire consequences for UK jobs.”

Burke argued that all major manufacturers in the UK have said that retaining access to the Single Market is key.

“You’ve got the auto manufacturing trade body the SMMT saying that out of the single market, the on-cost on a UK-made car equates to around £1,500 per car,” he said. “Supply chains in the automotive industry will be severely disrupted.

“Outside the Single Market, tariff costs will run into the billions for different manufacturing sectors – for food exports it could skyrocket as much as 30 per cent.”

“Negotiating Brexit was always going to be a tough job,” Burke added. “But after what the prime minister said yesterday, it’s going to be even tougher.”

He warned that any future trade deal with countries outside the EU, say with the United States for example, will be fraught with obstacles, not least of which is time.

“Trade agreements with the US take at the very around least four years and often many years more,” Burke explained. “The US will also have the upper hand in any such negotiations, which will entail accepting their terms – and that will invariably mean lowering standards on things like workers’ rights.”

Public services threat

May stressed in her speech that she aimed to take a hard-line approach on immigration and again stopped short of guaranteeing the rights of the more than 3m EU citizens living the UK.

Unite acting general secretary Gail Cartmail argued that May’s inability to offer security to these 3m people – whose work in public services the UK cannot do without — will have knock-on consequences.

“The NHS is dependent on EU nationals,” she said. “How they must feel about their future I can only imagine. And we already have a recruitment and retention crisis not just in the NHS but in other public services such teaching.

“Failing to offer assurances to EU nationals will have chilling effect on people investing their time and effort in coming and staying and this will have dire consequences for our public services, which have already faced years of massive spending cuts.”

Hard-right appeasement

Unite general secretary Len McCluskey condemned the prime minister’s “determination to appease the hard right in her party and UKIP by talking tough on immigration is putting millions of jobs in jeopardy.

“Out of the Single Market, possibly out of the Customs Union, then investment in core sectors like car manufacturing, chemicals, aerospace, even food manufacturing, will be threatened as companies face hefty on-costs and serious disruption to their supply chains,” he said.

“I urge Mrs May to listen to the anguish of working class communities, not to add to it,” McCluskey argued. “Trading with nations that will not uphold our labour standards is not an acceptable solution – that trade will come with a heavy price tag, certain to be paid in the jobs, rights and wages of working people.

“The prime minister must pay less heed to the Brexit headbangers around the cabinet table and more to the anxiety felt by working people who believe their jobs are being held hostage by the extreme nationalist wing of her government.”

Burke agreed.

“It was obvious in her speech that the prime minister was taking the direction that the hard-Brexiteers are aiming for,” he said.

He called May’s threat to turn the UK into a tax haven if the EU does not give the UK the deal it wants “appalling”.

“This will turn the UK into a Poundland spiv economy and it will be extremely damaging,” he warned.

Defending members

Still, no matter what the future holds in store, Unite has committed to standing by its members every step of the way.

“One thing I can promise to Unite members is that we are actively engaging on their behalf for a seat around [the Brexit negotiating] table,” Cartmail said.

“We are asking our reps and shop stewards to tell us if their employer is opportunistically taking action on their job security and pay and using Brexit as an excuse,” she added. “We are asking for early signs of the impact of insecurity of inward investment on jobs because our reps have their ears to the ground.

“We are the UK’s largest union and I truly believe we can make a huge difference if we pull together as we keep an eye on our members’ best interests.”

Burke echoed Cartmail’s commitments.

“We are going to make sure that any Brexit deal does not damage [members’] employment prospects, their wages and conditions, or their communities, in the way that it could well do so,” he said.

“Of all the trade unions, Unite is way ahead of the game in arguing and lobbying for a Brexit that benefits working people – our members can be assured that we will do our best to defend them.”